How many copies in circulation does this mean? We can determine that if we assume that my twice-a-year experience is typical. The steady state that I see would happen if one of every 20 recipients followed the letter's instructions, while the other 19 tossed it in the recycling bin. If the number of copies in circulation were really increasing in a chain reaction, the number reaching me should grow rapidly from year to year. Taking my personal experience at face value, sometimes a bad idea, we might guess that the total number of chain letters in the mail is about constant. For the last few years, I've seen some version of this particular letter about twice a year. We can make a few crude guesses as to how many folks actually are perpetuating the letter.

If this chain letter were truly unbroken, it would have produced more letters than there are atoms in the known universe - a mere 1079, give or take a few zillion. 'Bulk mail' indeed! It's hard to conceive of numbers so large, especially since the known stars in the sky number only about 1022. In other words, more than a 1 followed by 4,500 zeroes. That's more than my calculator can compute, but a little approximation puts the grand total at more than 104500. Had the chain remained unbroken, the last ripple of the wave would consist of 203835 pieces for the Postal Service to shoulder. The 42-year period since then represents 15,340 days or 3,835 waves of mailing.

Dias supposedly passed on 20 copies and promptly won a $2 million lottery. The letter I received claims that someone named Constantine Dias received a copy in 1953. That wouldn't bury all of us, but read on. In less than a month, this chain letter should have produced copies in quintuplicate for every man, woman and child on Earth. The chart below shows what happens for the next month: Mailing DayĢ0(8X) = 26 billion copies! The world's population is about 5.5 billion. Four days later, each of those 20 recipients sends copies to 20 'friends,' providing a wave of mail consisting of 20 x 20 = 400 pieces. So, on the first mailing, 20 copies hit the street. Consider, for instance, that 20 copies of the letter are to be sent out within four days of receipt. How do I know? If everyone had followed the law of the letter, you and I and the rest of the world would be buried in copies. The copy I received came with a cover note saying, 'For obvious reasons, I wouldn't dare not pass it on.' But I know that the vast majority of recipients have ignored the instructions. You may even have been tempted to forward it. Please send 20 copies and see what happens in four days.' Chances are you've received a 'chain letter' like this, perhaps from a well-meaning friend. You will receive good luck within four days of receiving this letter provided you, in turn, send it on. This paper has been sent to you for good luck.

D letter chain